Source text in English | Translation by Suleiman Dubow (X) (#26261) |
Boom times are back in Silicon Valley. Office parks along Highway 101 are once again adorned with the insignia of hopeful start-ups. Rents are soaring, as is the demand for fancy vacation homes in resort towns like Lake Tahoe, a sign of fortunes being amassed. The Bay Area was the birthplace of the semiconductor industry and the computer and internet companies that have grown up in its wake. Its wizards provided many of the marvels that make the world feel futuristic, from touch-screen phones to the instantaneous searching of great libraries to the power to pilot a drone thousands of miles away. The revival in its business activity since 2010 suggests progress is motoring on. So it may come as a surprise that some in Silicon Valley think the place is stagnant, and that the rate of innovation has been slackening for decades. Peter Thiel, a founder of PayPal, and the first outside investor in Facebook, says that innovation in America is “somewhere between dire straits and dead”. Engineers in all sorts of areas share similar feelings of disappointment. And a small but growing group of economists reckon the economic impact of the innovations of today may pale in comparison with those of the past. [ … ] Across the board, innovations fueled by cheap processing power are taking off. Computers are beginning to understand natural language. People are controlling video games through body movement alone—a technology that may soon find application in much of the business world. Three-dimensional printing is capable of churning out an increasingly complex array of objects, and may soon move on to human tissues and other organic material. An innovation pessimist could dismiss this as “jam tomorrow”. But the idea that technology-led growth must either continue unabated or steadily decline, rather than ebbing and flowing, is at odds with history. Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago points out that productivity growth during the age of electrification was lumpy. Growth was slow during a period of important electrical innovations in the late 19th and early 20th centuries; then it surged. | Nyakati za nzuri zimerudi katika Bonde la Silicon.Kodi inaongezeka, kama vile mahitaji ya nyumba za likizo fahari katika miji ya mapumziko kama Ziwa Tahoe, ishara ya utajiri ukiongezwa. Eneo la Bay lilikuwa mahali pa kuzaliwa kiwanda cha semikondakta na kampuni za kompyuta na mtandao ambazo zimekua zikiongezeka kwa sasa. Wachawi wanatoa maajabu yanayofanya ulimwengu kuhisi futari, kutoka simu ya kuguza skirini hadi papo kutafuta maktaba kuu kwa nguvu za rubani ya droni umbali wa maelfu ya maili. Uamsho katika shughuli zake za biashara tangu 2010 unaonyesha maendeleo inaendelea. Kwa hivyo inaweza kuja kuwa mshangao kwamba wengine katika Bonde la Silicon wanafikiria mahali hapo ni pale, na kwamba kiwango cha uvumbuzi kimepungua kwa miongo kadhaa. Peter Thiel, mwanzilishi wa PayPal, na mwekezaji wa kwanza wa Facebook, anasema kwamba uvumbuzi huko Amerika "ni mahali fulani kati ya shida kali na wafu". Wahandisi katika kila aina ya maeneo hushiriki hisia kama hizo za kukata tamaa. Na kikundi kidogo lakini kinachokua cha wachumi kinachochukulia athari za kiuchumi za uvumbuzi wa leo kinaweza kubadilika kulinganisha na yale ya zamani. [ … ] Kando ya bodi, uvumbuzi unaosababishwa na nguvu ya usindikaji wa bei nafuu huondoa. Kompyuta zinaanza kuelewa lugha asilia.Watu wanadhibiti michezo ya video kupitia harakati za mwili peke yao - teknolojia ambayo inaweza kupata matumizi katika sehemu nyingi za biashara. Uchapishaji wa sehemu tatu unaweza kutoa nje ya safu ngumu ya vitu, na hivi karibuni huweza kuendelea kwenye tishu za kibinadamu na vitu vingine vya kikaboni.Tamaa ya uvumbuzi inaweza kutupilia mbali hii kama "jamani kesho". Lakini wazo kwamba ukuaji unaoongozwa na teknolojia lazima uendelee kupungua au kushuka kwa kasi, badala ya kuzunguka na mtiririko, ni tofauti na historia. uvumbuzi mpya inaweza kufukuza hii kama "jam kesho". Lakini wazo kwamba ukuaji unaoongozwa na teknolojia lazima uendelee kupungua au kushuka kwa kasi, badala ya kuzunguka na mtiririko, ni tofauti na historia.Chad Syverson wa Chuo Kikuu cha Chicago anasema kwamba ukuaji wa tija wakati wa ujanaji ulikuwa utupu. Ukuaji ulikuwa polepole wakati wa uvumbuzi muhimu wa umeme mwishoni mwa karne ya 19 na mapema karne ya 20; basi ilizama. |